Colts at Texans Preview

Your Indianapolis Colts are traveling to Houston this weekend to do battle with the division-leading Houston Texans. The Colts and Texans are two of the hottest teams in the league (last week notwithstanding for the Colts) and this game could mean life or death for the Colts when it comes to the wild card race in the AFC.

The Texans (9-3) are riding high on a nine-game win streak that began in week 4 in Lucas Oil Stadium and they have some of the most exciting players in the league on their team. Deshaun Watson, Deandre Hopkins, JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are their four best players, but they have talent everywhere.

Watson is arguably the most exciting young quarterback in the league as he can run better than most and has the arm that can legitimately win games for this team. Deandre Hopkins is a top 3 receiver and deserves all of the respect and JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney make up arguably the most talented pass rushing duo in the leauge. While these four players are fantastic, they are not the only threats the Texans have. Demaryius Thomas, Keke Coutee, and Lamar Miller have all proven to be game breakers on offense while Tyrann Mathieu, Whitney Mercilus, and Benardrick Mckinney are all defensive studs. The Colts have to contain the Texans top-4 while not allowing the Texans other stars to kill them.

Looking back to week 4, the three names that stick out the most to me are Coutee, Watt, and Clowney. Those three ate against the Colts and to have a chance to win in NRG Stadium, they must be contained. Coutee had 11 receptions for 109 yards in week 4 with many of his yards coming after the catch. The Colts must do better at containing the Texans shifty slot receiver. This needs to begin with better tackling. Coutee was not the Texans leading receiver but, he is a good compliment to the Texans leading receiver, Hopkins, and did a lot to keep drives alive in week 4. Clowney and Watt dominated much of the week 4 game that saw the Colts fall behind 28-17 by the end of the 3rd quarter. The Watt/Clowney combo combined for four total sacks by the end of the game which stretched into overtime.

Since week four, the Colts have only given up 5 sacks, 3 of which came last week against the Jaguars, and in the process they have gone 5-2; translation: protecting Andrew Luck = Winning Games. Since the week four loss against the Texans, the Colts have two "new" offensive tackles in Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith. While having the Colts o-line in one piece makes a huge difference, the best way to protect Luck is to establish the run game early. The three-headed monster of Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins needs to see enough touches to make the Texans respect the run game without falling into the trap of looking vanilla. I would expect the screen and draw game to be massive parts of the offensive gameplan as those types of plays help slow down the pass rush. I also look for the Colts to target TY Hilton early and often as he, career-wise, dominates the Houston Texans. In 13 career games against the Texans, TY has 67 receptions for 1246 yards and 9 touchdowns.

The key players this week for the Colts offensively aside from Andrew Luck are Nyheim Hines, TY Hilton, and Braden Smith (due to a matchup up with JJ Watt ). Defensively, the key players for the Colts are Denico Autry (due to a need to generate an interior pass rush that gets in Watson's face) and all of the Colts corners, particularly Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston.

The key players this week for the Texans offensively are Deshaun Watson, Deandre Hopkins (as always), and Keke Coutee. Defensively, the key players for the Texans are obviously Watt, Clowney, and whoever the Texans coaching staff decides to punish by making attempt to cover TY, probably Johnathan Joseph.

The Colts have as good of a chance to beat the Texans as anybody does and I think they are able to get it done this week despite only being given a 35.5% chance of victory per ESPN. It will be a close game as the Texans are too talented to get blown out, especially at home, but I think the Colts edge out a 24-21 victory and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Route Chart from NFL Next Gen Stats demonstrating how dangerous Coutee was after the catch in Week 4's Colts match-up with the Texans.