First Year NFL Coaches Twelve Games In

Primarily, I am a Colts fan but I enjoy following the NFL overall. Today, I want to take a cursory look at the 2018 head coaching hires at the end of the 3rd quarter of their first season.

At the beginning of the 2018 NFL season, 7 teams had a new head coach, the Colts, the Bears, the Lions, the Giants, the Cardinals, the Titans, and the Raiders. The coaches all had various levels of experience and name recognition. They also carried with them different areas of expertise.

My ranking is as objective as I can make it - I am taking into account their win totals, how embarrassing their losses have been, and what the immediate future looks like for their teams. The ranking is as follows:

1. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears: He has done the improbable and paired an above average offense with the Bears excellent defense. The Bears are sitting atop their division at 8-4 with a firm grasp on an NFC playoff spot after averaging fewer than 5 wins per season over the last three years. The team's biggest win came in retaining Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio in the offseason. Their most embarrassing loss came to the Giants in week 13 in overtime, but to be fair Chase Daniel was their starting QB for the second week in a row due to an injury to starter, Mitch Trubisky. The Bears have the talent to make some noise in the playoffs and thanks to excellent coaching in all three phases of the game, there is a very real possibility of a deep playoff run in Nagy's first season.

2. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts: Frank Reich has been noted as an offensive genius but the biggest impact I've noticed has come from his defensive coordinator who Chris Ballard smartly retained when Josh McDaniels flaked at the 11th hour on the Colts, Matt Eberflus. The Colts transition to a faster 4-3 defense paired with their transfusion of youth has almost immediately paid immediate dividends. Coach Reich has also brought an exciting offense that protects Andrew Luck more than any other offense he has played in professionally. The Colts most embarrassing losses have come to the New York Jets in week 6 and the Jaguars in week 13. Their most impressive win came in the form of a complete dismantling of the Tennessee Titans in week 11. The Colts, after starting 1-5 have risen to a respectable 6-6 and seem to have a very bright future ahead of them despite some occasional failures (please see yesterday's blog, Offensive Aggressiveness Cost the Colts a Game?). Even if the Colts miss the playoffs, it's hard to argue against Reich's first season being a success compared to last year's 4-12 debacle that was plagued by poor coaching decisions.

3. Pat Shurmur, New York Giants: The roster aside from OBJ and Saquon seems to be in shambles, the offensive line is not good, their defense is aging and not fully built to fit their new 3-4 scheme that James Bettcher brought over from Arizona. Pat Shurmur is an offensive guru but being hampered by Eli Manning has hurt him as this has seemed to be a waste of his first season. The Giants have reason to be optimistic, though as they will likely have a top 10 draft, maybe even top 5. Shurmur and Bettcher are both proven commodities and they will be able to turn the team around if given enough time and enough talent.

4. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans: The Titans were a playoff team last year and due to injuries they seem very much middle of the road this year. Vrabel's biggest win has been plucking Matt LaFleur from the Rams coaching staff to be his OC and help the team transition from the Mike Mularkey "exotic smashmouth" days. The former linebacker seems to bring a youthful aggressiveness to the Titans that seems fun and exactly what the league needs. He has huge boom or bust potential just depends on the roster built for him.

5. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions: Beat the Patriots, lost to the Jets. The Lions are still the Lions, it seems and Matt Patricia may just be another mediocre branch on the Bellichick coaching tree.

6. Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have taken a considerable step back from what they were under Jack Del Rio. Gruden seems disconnected after his years in broadcasting. Their biggest loss seems to be the trade of Khalil Mack, but that hasn't come fully to fruition yet. What was once a promising young roster, is now one of the oldest in the league and will have, potentially, the 1st overall pick on it next season and much of that has to do with Gruden's influence on the roster.

7. Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have fallen off more than anyone ever imagined when Bruce Arians announced his retirement. They've changed defensive schemes under Coach Wilks and Josh Rosen hasn't been what anyone imagined he would be when he was drafted. They also fired their offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, just a few games into the season. The Cardinals had been playoff contenders for half of a decade under Arians and now they have a veteran laden roster that is built to win now, but has yet to show any ability to win under Wilks. He is already on the hot seat 3 quarters of the way through his first season.

Bears, Colts, and Giants fans should be excited for their future. Titans fans also have reason for cautious optimism while it seems that the Lions should expect more of the same. But any way about it, at least those 5 teams did not hire Jon Gruden or Steve Wilks.

Indianapolis Colts Head Coach Frank Reich, no. 14, in his playing days with the Buffalo Bills (Photo Courtesy of Pro Football Talk)